Break-Even Analysis
The exact year when EV total cost drops below ICE, with sensitivity analysis on gas and electricity prices.
Break-Even Analysis
The break-even calculation finds the ownership year where cumulative EV costs cross below cumulative ICE costs. We model this as a time series with gas price volatility (EIA historical standard deviation), electricity rate trajectory (EIA projections), and battery cost decline curves (BNEF: $80/kWh in 2026, projected $69/kWh by 2030).
Sensitivity analysis shows how the break-even year shifts if gas prices rise or fall by 20%, if electricity rates change, or if you drive more or fewer miles than average. This gives you the full decision space, not just a single number.