Monte Carlo Simulation
10,000 battery degradation and cost scenarios using DOE/Geotab data calibrated to your vehicle and climate.
Monte Carlo Simulation
Rather than a single point estimate, Celvari runs 10,000 simulated ownership scenarios for each vehicle comparison. Battery degradation draws from DOE/Argonne research and the Geotab 22,700-vehicle dataset, using log-normal fade curves adjusted by climate zone and DCFC charging frequency.
The simulation produces a complete cost distribution:
- Expected (mean) cost difference -- average across all scenarios
- Break-even year -- the median year EV total cost drops below ICE
- 95th percentile cost -- worst-case planning number
- Full histogram -- see the entire distribution of possible outcomes
This lets you choose based on your risk tolerance: a conservative buyer might focus on worst-case cost, while an aggressive optimizer focuses on expected savings.